Now Vs. Then Vs. The Future

This blog will be taking a deeper look into the climate of Ranohira and comparing what it is now to what it was 100 million to what it is now to what it is projected to be in the future.
Ranohira, Madagascar

Source:media-cdn.tripadvisor.com

Source:images.madagascarhotels-direct.com
Ranohira is located in Madagascar. Its current latitude is 22.5 degrees South, longitude 45.4 degrees East, and 2701 feet in elevation. Madagascar is located southeast of Africa in the Indian Ocean. But Ranohira wasn't always located in this spot. During the late early Cretaceous period Madagascar was in a much different location. The two graphs below will show you Madagascars current location (top map located off the coast of Africa, orange land mass) and previous location (bottom map: still located off the coast of Africa connected to India).

Source: worldpress.org

Source:wikispaces.com
Notice the giant difference in the location of Ranohira. It is much lower in latitude and located more towards the center of the Earth. With being in such a different location you can only assume that this had an affect on the climate. Below you can view a climate map of the world 100 million years ago.

Source:scotese.com
During the late early cretaceous period the climate of Madagascar (off the southeast side of Africa with the two green indicator dots) was warm temperate. Today the climate of Madagascar is a mix between Arid steppe hot arid climate and warm temperate fully humid climate.

Source:priroda.cz
Here is a climography expressing Ranohira Madagascar's climate. (Temp on top, Precip. on bottom)

Source:weatheronline.co.uk

Source:t2.gstatic.com
And here is what I assume a climograph would look like 100 years ago.

So what is causing this change in climate. As you know Ranohira is affected by a maritime polar air mass currently but during the late early cretaceous period (using the map to track the previous location) it looks like Ranohira would have been affected by a continental antarctic airmass along with the maritime polar. This would cause Ranohira to be much colder as the antarctic wind swept upwards from Antartica.

Source:rst.gsfc.nasa.gov
Another thing that would have effected the climate of Ranohira are the winds. Currently Ranohira is located almost right on the line of the Tropic of Capricorn (as shown in the picture below). This means that Ranohira experiences a high intensity of the suns rays. But back when Ranohira was located in a different position, more south, it would have been effected by the Westerlies. This means that the west side of Ranohira would receive warm winds from the surrounding ocean. Also the westerlies may have driven more tropical cyclones to occur.

Source: nc-climate.ncsu.edu

Source: rst.gsfc.nasa.gov
There have been many changes in the makeup of the land since the late early cretaceous era. Because humans did not live on the land back then there were no anthopogenic changes contributing to climate change.

Source:globalvoicesonline.org

Source:media-cdn.tripadvisor.com
Even though I said in a previous blog that the people of Madagascar have not disturbed the land as much as American cities, every alteration does effect the climate. Tearing down the forest to make way for roads and shelter has made a change to climate by changing the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere. However I'm sure that if I compared the past and present climate of Chicago (as i did in my previous blog) the man-made contributions would be much less statistically significant in Ranohira.

What does the future hold?

Source:3.bp.blogspot.com
From what I have observed from this graph of global warming predictions in the years 2070-2100 is that Ranohira will experience temperatures reaching to about 4 degrees Celsius than now. That means that the climograph would maybe look like this

I believe that this is mainly due to anthropogenic changes rather than physical ones. However 100 million years from now I am lead to believe that the changes in climate will be due to physical changes.

Source:sg.hu
The photo above shows a prediction of where the continents are projected to be millions of years from now(I think Madagascar is the small country located 15 degrees west? It is also circled). I assume that because this predicts for 250 million (third earth in photo) years from now that in 100 million we will be some in between the present day positions and the predicted 250 million year position. But judging by the diagram Madagascar will be located just above the equator which would definitely cause the temperature to be much warmer than it is today. This also would place Ranohira in the Norther hemisphere (where it has never been located before). This may greatly affect the climate. Ranohira would then be affected by maritime equatorial and maritime tropical airmasses which means that Ranohira would experience warmer and more moist/humid weather.

I would say that in order to avoid climate change in the near future Ranohira should avoid creating anthropogenic damages. But as for the future due to such a dramatic shift in Ranohira's position there is nothing to do to avoid climate change.

Ranohira Vs. Chicago

This blog will be comparing and contrasting the differences in the climate of Ranohira, Madagascar and Chicago, Illinois.
Here is a photo of a December day in Chicago Illinois (top) vs one in Ranohira Madagascar.

Source: flickr.com

Source: oursurprisingworld.com
You can observe that during this time these cities are experiencing very different weather.

Source:www2m.biglobe.ne.jp
On the map above you can easily compare the savanna climate of Ranohira, Madagascar with the humid subtropical climate of Chicago, Illinois.

Let's take a deeper look into what is influencing the difference in climate.
Both Chicago and Ranohira experience maritime tropical airmasses; meaning they both experience hot and humid conditions in the summer months.
However instead of having a maritime polar air mass move in during the colder seasons Chicago experiences a continental polar air mass. This means that due to Chicago being located in between two mountain ranges on the sides there are no barriers blocking air moving in from the north and south. During the winter months the Continental Polar air funnels in from Canada causing very cold temperatures.
Unlike Ranohira, Chicago sits on a lake. Below is a photo of Chicago being located along Lake Michigan.

Source: sandersonyachting.com
The lake causes lake-effect snow which is caused by cold winds picking up warm lake air. Chicago is also very much affected by anthropogenic changes. Below is a picture of the city

Source:destination360.com
The city causes urban heat islands which means that the core of Chicago where the city is located will experience warmer temperatures than the surrounding countryside.
Because there are much more factors affecting Chicago than Ranohira there would be more fluctuations and variability in the climate.

Let's get physical

Looking at Ranohira on a Micro Scale;
A) Are there any naturally occurring valleys or depression?
Because the majority of Ranohira's land is used for farming and raising livestock there are really no major land depressions.
B) Orographic influences:
Urban Heat Islands? Like i mentioned before, the majority of the land is used for farming so there aren't many urbanized areas. However the areas that are urbanized are much different than what we in America consider Urbanized.

Source: Panoramio.com
Notice the buildings are still poorly built and they do not have paved roads, they are just dirt. Tough building anything does disturb the climate their cities would not have as much of a heating affect as American cities do.
Natural Vegetation Changes?
Aside from clearing space for roads Ranohira doesn't make much changes to the natural Vegetation either. Below is a photo of what a street would look like . Notice all of the vegetation and trees surrounding the road. Also much like thier cities the roads are unpaved thus having less of a climate changing effect.

Source:egypttoday.co.za
unfortunately i could not find how close my weather station was to any irrigation so i can not express how that effects the climate.

Looking at Ranohira on a Meso Scale
A) Orographic situation-Mountain Chains.
The Tsaratanana mountain range runs through madagascar. But it is primarily in the northern half and does not reach Ranohira.
B) Proximity to large bodies of water
The largest body of water in Madagascar is Lake Alaotra; it is approximately 40 km long but it does not stretch into Ranohira. Below is a photo illustrating the location of this Lake

Source:Permaas.nl
Ranohira is also located 200km away from the Indian Ocean. I think that because this is a larger body of water it would have a greater influence on the weather than the lake does.
C) Circulatory patterns and air mass dominance.
As mentioned in one of my earlier blogs Ranohira is affected by th ITCZ and a maritime polar air mass.

Under the Koppen/Geiger classification map Ranohira is dark green (Cfa) meaning that the main climate is warm temperate, the precipitation is fully humid, and the tempereature is classified as hot summer.

Source: class slides

From what i have observed from my station there have been no major changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns of Ranohira. I think that this is due to them not making any major changes to the land. Keeping the roads unpaved and natural vegetation as well as having much less urban areas results to having a more stable climate because you aren't interfering with the things that affect it.

Fairbanks Alaska Vs. Ranohira Madagascar.

Where would you rather be?
When trying to find a place to compare and contrast with Ranohira Madagascar I tried to pick a place that would have the most contrast. And what better place than Fairbanks Alaska! This blog post will take a deeper look into the differences between those two locations.


Source:Flicker.com
Here is a picture of what a typical November day would look like in Fairbanks Alaska.


Source:Woophy.com
And this is what a typical November day looks like in Ranohira.

Notice the differences. Im sure the first thing you would notice is the presence of snow in Alaska and the lack there of in Madagascar. This is because Madagascar is entering its summer season where as Alaska is entering its winter. During the Month of November Fairbanks is said to experience temperatures ranging from 43-23 degrees where as Ranohira is said to experience temperature ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s during November.
Not only is the weather a polar opposite the locations are too. The latitude of Fairbanks is 64.837N and the longitude is -147.716W. Ranohira has a Latitude of 22.5 and longitude 45.4 E. These locations aren't even located in the same hemisphere that's how different they are.
Here is a closer look at the location of Fairbanks.

Source:fairbanks.world-guides.com
Here is another look at the location of Ranohira. (the dot marks the spot)

Source:traveljournals.net
Now, using those two pictures here is a world map. You can really get a sense of the location difference while looking at the locations at the same time on a map. Fairbanks would be located in the green area marked US off of Canada and Ranohira would be located in the pink island of Madagascar of the southeast coast of Africa.

Source:geology.com

But wait! Not everything about these two locations are different. Both Ranohira and Fairbanks are effected by a maritime polar air mass which means that whenever these months are experiencing winter cool humid air is blown onto the areas from the ocean. They are also both slightly affected by a maritime tropical air mass. If you refer to my last weeks blog about the air masses you will find a chart that illustrates these air masses. But because it isnt winter in Ranohira, you dont have to worry
So where would you rather be right now? Up in Fairbanks, Alaska probably getting smacked in the face with cold polar winds. Or in Ranohira, Madagascar baking in the sun. That's a slight over exaggeration but think about it. Personally I would much rather be off the coast of Africa, soaking up the sun in Ranohira, Madagascar.

Air Masses

There is a large maritime polar air mass sweeping from the Atlantic ocean that directly affects Madagascar. The inter tropical convergence zone during the summer shifts from being located over northern Madagascar to the southern region.
This map shows all of the airmasses worldwide. You can see the Maritime Polar mass that moves up towards Madagascar

Source: Earthmyspace.com
This photo shows you the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)over Madagascar

Source: web.idrc.ca
The steep topography of southern Madagascar causes cool moist air masses to rise and produce rainfall. Ranohira is not that steep however i still receives a fair amount of precipitation.
Here is a map that illustrates the variety of topography in Madagascar

Source: Mapsof.net
From my previous blog post you can compare the elevation of Ranohira with other parts of Madagascar.
During the winter mid-lattitude storms pass through southern Madagascar. Cyclones form over the Indian ocean and move inland towards the south and west. Here is a map tracking the patterns of these cyclones. This map doesn't track any of the cyclones heading south towards Ranohira, however, depending on environmental factors these storms could affect Ranohira and cause great damage.

Source: scienceblogs.com
This is a picture i found interesting. Its and arial view taken by a Nasa earth observatory of a cyclone moving towards Madagascar.

Source:earthobservatory.nasa.gov

ALSO! Sorry for all of my photos being so gigantic, i couldn't figure out how to shrink them.

Average Climate and Weather

Ranohira, Madagascar:
Lat: 22.5 S
Long: 45.4 E
Elevation: 2701 ft.

Ishalo National Park - Madagascar by Maurizio Moretto

Hello Guys,
This weather station is located in Ranohira, Madagascar. Madagascar is a lovely little land mass located southeast of Africa in the Indian Ocean. Ranohira, mostly covered by soil and a few mountains is located in southern Madagascar about 100 miles from the western coast and about 150 miles from the eastern coast. Below the two graphs will show you the location of Ranohira and the geographical makeup.

Source: http://mapsof.net/map/ranohira

Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Chameleons/chameleons2.html

On average, the climate of this Madagascar city is typically hot wet summers (November - April), and cold dry winters (May - October). Typically around this time of year Ranohira experiences average temperature highs of about 86 degrees Fahrenheit and lows of about 64.4. This chart below illustrates the average monthly temperatures of Ranohira (measured in degrees Celsius).

The average precipitation for Ranohira is illustrated by this chart:



Source of both photos: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk

As you can see, on average the precipitation during this month is measure to be about 120 mm. From this chart you can also compare the wet seasons (November- April) precipitation to the dry months (May- October).
I can only predict that the closer we get to winter the more and more jealous we will become of Ranohira, because it is nearing its warmest months as we are entering some of our coldest.