Now Vs. Then Vs. The Future

This blog will be taking a deeper look into the climate of Ranohira and comparing what it is now to what it was 100 million to what it is now to what it is projected to be in the future.
Ranohira, Madagascar

Source:media-cdn.tripadvisor.com

Source:images.madagascarhotels-direct.com
Ranohira is located in Madagascar. Its current latitude is 22.5 degrees South, longitude 45.4 degrees East, and 2701 feet in elevation. Madagascar is located southeast of Africa in the Indian Ocean. But Ranohira wasn't always located in this spot. During the late early Cretaceous period Madagascar was in a much different location. The two graphs below will show you Madagascars current location (top map located off the coast of Africa, orange land mass) and previous location (bottom map: still located off the coast of Africa connected to India).

Source: worldpress.org

Source:wikispaces.com
Notice the giant difference in the location of Ranohira. It is much lower in latitude and located more towards the center of the Earth. With being in such a different location you can only assume that this had an affect on the climate. Below you can view a climate map of the world 100 million years ago.

Source:scotese.com
During the late early cretaceous period the climate of Madagascar (off the southeast side of Africa with the two green indicator dots) was warm temperate. Today the climate of Madagascar is a mix between Arid steppe hot arid climate and warm temperate fully humid climate.

Source:priroda.cz
Here is a climography expressing Ranohira Madagascar's climate. (Temp on top, Precip. on bottom)

Source:weatheronline.co.uk

Source:t2.gstatic.com
And here is what I assume a climograph would look like 100 years ago.

So what is causing this change in climate. As you know Ranohira is affected by a maritime polar air mass currently but during the late early cretaceous period (using the map to track the previous location) it looks like Ranohira would have been affected by a continental antarctic airmass along with the maritime polar. This would cause Ranohira to be much colder as the antarctic wind swept upwards from Antartica.

Source:rst.gsfc.nasa.gov
Another thing that would have effected the climate of Ranohira are the winds. Currently Ranohira is located almost right on the line of the Tropic of Capricorn (as shown in the picture below). This means that Ranohira experiences a high intensity of the suns rays. But back when Ranohira was located in a different position, more south, it would have been effected by the Westerlies. This means that the west side of Ranohira would receive warm winds from the surrounding ocean. Also the westerlies may have driven more tropical cyclones to occur.

Source: nc-climate.ncsu.edu

Source: rst.gsfc.nasa.gov
There have been many changes in the makeup of the land since the late early cretaceous era. Because humans did not live on the land back then there were no anthopogenic changes contributing to climate change.

Source:globalvoicesonline.org

Source:media-cdn.tripadvisor.com
Even though I said in a previous blog that the people of Madagascar have not disturbed the land as much as American cities, every alteration does effect the climate. Tearing down the forest to make way for roads and shelter has made a change to climate by changing the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere. However I'm sure that if I compared the past and present climate of Chicago (as i did in my previous blog) the man-made contributions would be much less statistically significant in Ranohira.

What does the future hold?

Source:3.bp.blogspot.com
From what I have observed from this graph of global warming predictions in the years 2070-2100 is that Ranohira will experience temperatures reaching to about 4 degrees Celsius than now. That means that the climograph would maybe look like this

I believe that this is mainly due to anthropogenic changes rather than physical ones. However 100 million years from now I am lead to believe that the changes in climate will be due to physical changes.

Source:sg.hu
The photo above shows a prediction of where the continents are projected to be millions of years from now(I think Madagascar is the small country located 15 degrees west? It is also circled). I assume that because this predicts for 250 million (third earth in photo) years from now that in 100 million we will be some in between the present day positions and the predicted 250 million year position. But judging by the diagram Madagascar will be located just above the equator which would definitely cause the temperature to be much warmer than it is today. This also would place Ranohira in the Norther hemisphere (where it has never been located before). This may greatly affect the climate. Ranohira would then be affected by maritime equatorial and maritime tropical airmasses which means that Ranohira would experience warmer and more moist/humid weather.

I would say that in order to avoid climate change in the near future Ranohira should avoid creating anthropogenic damages. But as for the future due to such a dramatic shift in Ranohira's position there is nothing to do to avoid climate change.

Ranohira Vs. Chicago

This blog will be comparing and contrasting the differences in the climate of Ranohira, Madagascar and Chicago, Illinois.
Here is a photo of a December day in Chicago Illinois (top) vs one in Ranohira Madagascar.

Source: flickr.com

Source: oursurprisingworld.com
You can observe that during this time these cities are experiencing very different weather.

Source:www2m.biglobe.ne.jp
On the map above you can easily compare the savanna climate of Ranohira, Madagascar with the humid subtropical climate of Chicago, Illinois.

Let's take a deeper look into what is influencing the difference in climate.
Both Chicago and Ranohira experience maritime tropical airmasses; meaning they both experience hot and humid conditions in the summer months.
However instead of having a maritime polar air mass move in during the colder seasons Chicago experiences a continental polar air mass. This means that due to Chicago being located in between two mountain ranges on the sides there are no barriers blocking air moving in from the north and south. During the winter months the Continental Polar air funnels in from Canada causing very cold temperatures.
Unlike Ranohira, Chicago sits on a lake. Below is a photo of Chicago being located along Lake Michigan.

Source: sandersonyachting.com
The lake causes lake-effect snow which is caused by cold winds picking up warm lake air. Chicago is also very much affected by anthropogenic changes. Below is a picture of the city

Source:destination360.com
The city causes urban heat islands which means that the core of Chicago where the city is located will experience warmer temperatures than the surrounding countryside.
Because there are much more factors affecting Chicago than Ranohira there would be more fluctuations and variability in the climate.

Let's get physical

Looking at Ranohira on a Micro Scale;
A) Are there any naturally occurring valleys or depression?
Because the majority of Ranohira's land is used for farming and raising livestock there are really no major land depressions.
B) Orographic influences:
Urban Heat Islands? Like i mentioned before, the majority of the land is used for farming so there aren't many urbanized areas. However the areas that are urbanized are much different than what we in America consider Urbanized.

Source: Panoramio.com
Notice the buildings are still poorly built and they do not have paved roads, they are just dirt. Tough building anything does disturb the climate their cities would not have as much of a heating affect as American cities do.
Natural Vegetation Changes?
Aside from clearing space for roads Ranohira doesn't make much changes to the natural Vegetation either. Below is a photo of what a street would look like . Notice all of the vegetation and trees surrounding the road. Also much like thier cities the roads are unpaved thus having less of a climate changing effect.

Source:egypttoday.co.za
unfortunately i could not find how close my weather station was to any irrigation so i can not express how that effects the climate.

Looking at Ranohira on a Meso Scale
A) Orographic situation-Mountain Chains.
The Tsaratanana mountain range runs through madagascar. But it is primarily in the northern half and does not reach Ranohira.
B) Proximity to large bodies of water
The largest body of water in Madagascar is Lake Alaotra; it is approximately 40 km long but it does not stretch into Ranohira. Below is a photo illustrating the location of this Lake

Source:Permaas.nl
Ranohira is also located 200km away from the Indian Ocean. I think that because this is a larger body of water it would have a greater influence on the weather than the lake does.
C) Circulatory patterns and air mass dominance.
As mentioned in one of my earlier blogs Ranohira is affected by th ITCZ and a maritime polar air mass.

Under the Koppen/Geiger classification map Ranohira is dark green (Cfa) meaning that the main climate is warm temperate, the precipitation is fully humid, and the tempereature is classified as hot summer.

Source: class slides

From what i have observed from my station there have been no major changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns of Ranohira. I think that this is due to them not making any major changes to the land. Keeping the roads unpaved and natural vegetation as well as having much less urban areas results to having a more stable climate because you aren't interfering with the things that affect it.